The calm before the storm

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: Donald Trump returned to the campaign trail last night after surviving an apparent second assassination attempt at the weekend. “Only consequential presidents get shot at,” the Republican boasted to a cheering crowd of supporters in Flint, Michigan. 
A one-man show: The former president was talking at a town hall event to Arkansas Governor (and former White House Press Secretary) Sarah Huckabee Sanders, but it was pretty much a long and winding monologue, touching on how the climate crisis could have some good elements (“if I have a little property on the ocean … I have a little bit more ocean”), his bonhomie with dictators, and — obvs — how many fans turn up at his rallies.
Just don’t call it rambling, OK? “The fake news likes to say, ‘Oh he was rambling.’ No, no, that’s not rambling — that’s genius,” Trump said of his own remarks. “Now, Sarah, if you couldn’t connect the dots, you got a problem. But every dot was connected. And many stories were told in that little paragraph.” Uh huh.
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All friends: There was some attempt to cool the political atmosphere (from a million degrees Fahrenheit), with Trump saying Kamala Harris “could not have been nicer” in a phone call they shared after the second shooting. He even hushed fans who started to boo his Democratic rival — in that instance. The vice president had given her own account of the phone call earlier in the evening, telling the National Association of Black Journalists (in a rare interview) that she told Trump “there is no place for political violence in our country.” Read my D.C. colleagues’ write-up here.
Good Wednesday morning. This is Sam Blewett.
CALM BEFORE THE STORMS: Westminster is exhausted just thinking about the two big party conferences coming up (sorry Lib Dems). Labour and the Tories have given their frontbenchers the day off the morning broadcast round — which is awfully lucky for any government minister who would’ve had to dream up a decent defense to Keir Starmer’s fondness for freebies. But as Labour MPs prepare for their knees-up in Liverpool and the Tories sharpen their axes ahead of the Birmingham “beauty parade,” there’ll still be a trickling of domestic news throughout the day.
INFLATION HOLDS: The ONS has just dropped the inflation figures for August showing that the consumer price inflation stubbornly remained above the Bank of England’s 2 percent target. CPI was estimated at 2.2 percent — unchanged from July. That’s hardly good news for those struggling with the high cost of living but, hey, at least it boosts Labour’s argument about the miserly economic inheritance it’s been bequeathed by the Tories. 
Snap reaction: Max Mosley, a senior economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said: “While we shouldn’t overreact to volatile monthly measures of inflation, these latest numbers after last month’s small rise will together decrease the chances of another rate cut this year.” The BOE’s monetary policy committee meets Thursday to decide whether to lower the 5 percent rate.
I’m afraid the chancellor’s not at her desk right now: The response from the Treasury won’t be from Rachel Reeves. The chancellor is instead getting Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones to issue a statement. For the Tories, Shadow Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will be weighing in with his own words.
What Reeves really wants to talk about: The chancellor will bring together women who are prominent in financial services, technology and the creative sector at a reception with the Fawcett Society in No. 11 this evening to stress their key role in growing the economy. Representatives from Google, Aviva and Barclays are among those down to attend. 
HEALTH CHECK: But before that, Wes Streeting will give a speech in Westminster for the IPPR after the think tank published its health commission report, fit with analysis from official reviewer Ara Darzi. The top surgeon will kick off proceedings shortly before midday, then the health secretary takes to the stage for a 20-minute speech followed by press questions.
You might want to sit down for this: The slick communicator will no doubt have a more polished response up his sleeve to any questions about the prime minister’s love of accepting gifts after Home Office Minister Angela Eagle triggered a raft of headlines by getting in a right pickle on Tuesday’s morning round.
The outbreak of gloom is infectious: Streeting, in an interview with the New Statesman’s George Eaton, hinted that it’s not just pensioners who will bear the brunt of Labour’s plans. “I can understand why there will be some pensioners sat there thinking, ‘Well, why us? And what about others?’ Well, there are other choices to come and these aren’t just Rachel’s choices to face up to, these are the choices of the whole government,” Streeting said. Oh, great.
It’s hardly “Glory Days”: Pat McFadden issued a strong defense of Starmer over “Frockgate” (or whatever other “gate” the row is being termed), describing the PM in an interview with the Guardian’s Pippa Crerar as a man of “enormous integrity.” The Cabinet Office supremo, known more for his love of Bruce Springsteen than his cheery demeanor, tried to lay on a little optimism after all of Labour’s gloom. He insisted “there are reasons to be both ambitious and optimistic about the future” — but in what way it wasn’t exactly clear …
And don’t start on “It’s Coming Home”: Starmer has insisted he wouldn’t water down his plans for a football regulator, despite UEFA warning that England risks being banned from the Euro 2028 it’s co-hosting. In comments to the Lobby during his Roman excursion, Starmer said he was confident his plans were “perfectly consistent” with the governing body’s rules, and claimed it had already “slightly reduced their concerns” in their discussions. The Times has more details.
Time to start throwing darts at the atlas: Reporters who traveled with Starmer to Italy are also reporting that Martin Hewitt, the PM’s new border chief, has been making clear that the government’s strategy to tackle small boat crossings must contain a deterrent, which does point a little toward Starmer considering a Giorgia Meloni-style Albania-type plan.
Ruh-oh: Daniel Martin, on the Telegraph’s front page, reports that the new Water (Special Measures) Bill will grant ministers the authority to transfer the cost of rescuing failing water companies — like Thames Water — to other water firms. These firms may then pass these additional costs onto consumers through higher bills. Officials were trying to hose down the story, insisting they don’t foresee any intervention that could hike bills, but it’s another report that’ll do nothing to calm the nerves of those struggling with the cost of living.  
DI HARD WITH A VENGEANCE: Panorama aired its interview with Diane Abbott last night that contained her well-trailed claim that Starmer treated her like a “non-person” after Tory donor Frank Hester’s comments that were widely derided as racist. The veteran left-winger also criticized the government’s removal of the winter fuel allowance from millions of pensioners and warned she’s not afraid to be stripped of the whip again. “I mean, they took away from me once. It’s up to them if they want to do it again,” she told Victoria Derbyshire. “No, I’m not fussed about that.”
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips has announced buffer zones will come into force around abortion clinics in England and Wales from Oct. 31. It’ll become illegal for anyone to influence, harass or cause distress to anyone seeking an abortion or providing them within 150 meters of clinics. Unlimited fines will be the punishment.
AS LABOUR AND THE TORIES PSYCH THEMSELVES UP … the Lib Dems are sleeping off their conference hangovers after their Brighton jamboree wrapped with Leader Ed Davey’s conference speech. The big question now though is where they go next — and my colleague Noah Keate has explored whether the seaside euphoria and jubilation can be sustained under a Labour government. “The party has got to remain hungry. It’s got to remain ambitious,” the longest-serving Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael tells him. Expect the 72 MPs to talk plenty about the NHS and local issues as they try and turn marginal wins into safe seats. Read Noah’s piece here.
Was it all worth it? The Mail’s coverage amounts to a Quentin Letts sketch lampooning Davey’s “sentimental tripe,” and none of the front pages picked up on his speech. There’s been lots of questioning Davey’s decision to continue his slapstick approach to leadership now that he’s actually got a proper band of MPs — but if he had delivered the speech while windsurfing around the West Pier at least he might have got a little more coverage this morning.
BUT WHAT EVERYONE IS REALLY TALKING ABOUT: Hezbollah’s exploding pagers across Lebanon make the splashes of the Times, Telegraph, Guardian, Mirror, Mail and the i. According to Lebanese officials, a child was among at least nine people killed in the audacious synchronized attack that wounded more than 2,700 and once again ratcheted up the tensions in the Middle East. Israel is the prime suspect. The New York Times reports that Israel is thought to have carried out the operation by hiding explosives in a batch of Taiwanese-made pagers imported into Lebanon. The Foreign Office last night urged “calm heads and de-escalation at this critical time.” 
GENERATION GAMES: Ten years have now elapsed since the “once in a generation” referendum on Scottish independence — but the battle for the narrative is still very much ongoing. 
Nat going away: John Swinney, the third SNP leader since the 2014 referendum in which 55 percent of Scots voted to stay in the Union, will rally with activists in Edinburgh, giving a speech and taking media questions from 10.25 a.m.
The message: The Scottish first minister will insist the vote left an “overwhelmingly positive legacy,” according to words trailed by his party. But there was less mention of the SNP’s strategy for independence after the party was massively depleted (in Westminster, at least) by the drubbing in the general election.
To the contrary: Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar, with his party now boasting 37 MPs north of the border, is delivering a contrasting message. In a statement overnight, Sarwar lamented a “decade of turbulence, division and decline in our politics” since the referendum and hit out at his rivals who still “want to focus on what happened in the past.” Indeed, it is Labour that seems to be most looking forward to the next Holyrood election, due in 2026.
Where’s independence now? Pretty much where it was on Sept. 18, 2014. A YouGov poll of more than a thousand Scots had 56 percent favoring staying part of the U.K. in a hypothetical future referendum, to 44 percent wanting out. But that excluded the don’t knows, who were 8 percent of the vote, giving the SNP something to fight for.
SCOOP — FRENCH CONNECTION: The U.K. will seek a reboot of the Lancaster House Agreement to coincide with the treaty’s 15th anniversary next year. Defence Secretary John Healey tells my colleague Esther Webber it’s “the right time” to revisit the defense pact between Britain and France in light of the increasing threat posed by Russia. The move is part of a wider diplomacy drive, which sees U.K. negotiators travel to Berlin this week to thrash out details of a separate defense agreement with Germany announced at the recent NATO summit.
POP THE CORKS: Tory donors will brush shoulders and clink glasses with party bigwigs and leadership candidates tonight at the treasurer’s drinks, Playbook hears. “Cash for chat,” as one party strategist dubbed it.
Tory leadership contest rumbles on: Kemi Badenoch hailed Reform voters as “our people” in an interview with GB News’ Christopher Hope. She vowed to remove Labour’s VAT on private school fees because she knows a hairdresser who’s sending her child to a state school because of the move … Rival Robert Jenrick urged Starmer to proscribe Iran’s IRGC in an op-ed in the Telegraph … and James Cleverly will take an LBC phone in at 9 p.m.  
Major intervention: John Major criticized the Tories’ Rwanda asylum plan as “un-Conservative and un-British” in an interview with the BBC’s Amol Rajan. Don’t tell that to Jenrick and Cleverly, who have been pledging to revive the axed scheme.
Nandy’s two fingers to Archer: The Telegraph spots that Lisa Nandy’s decision to keep former MasterChef presenter Lloyd Grossman on as the chair of London’s Royal Parks is a royal snub to Mary Archer. The wife of scandal-prone former Tory MP Jeffrey Archer was picked by the Tories for the role back in May but now Grossman is being kept while a successor is chosen. Culture Media and Sport Committee Chair Caroline Dinenage called it a “spiteful decision.”  But officials insist there’ll be a “fair and open competition” in accordance with the rules.
CHINA CHAT: Labour grandee Peter Mandelson told Bloomberg the previous Conservative government failed to achieve the “necessary communication that Britain needs to maintain with China,” and did not live up to the U.K.’s responsibilities in Hong Kong.
HERE’S A PLAN: Universities UK will publish a “blueprint” for its institutions, including proposals for universities to voluntarily “manage international student population” growth and a call for tuition fees in England to rise in line with inflation. Read more on the Guardian.
Reminder of student life: New Labour MP Patrick Hurley has been staying in student accommodation in London since he was elected, renting an £80-a-night room normally used by LSE students, PoliticsHome’s Tom Scotson reports. 
REVIEW, PLEASE: Shadow Security Minister and Conservative leadership candidate Tom Tugendhat has called on Attorney General Richard Hermer to formally review the decision not to sentence Huw Edwards to an immediate jail sentence via the unduly lenient sentences scheme, the Daily Mail reports. 
ADMIN SUPPORT: The Home Office has announced up to £4 million of support to organizations across the U.K. helping vulnerable people with the transition to eVisas. 
INQUIRING: The Covid-19 inquiry sits from 10 a.m. with evidence from former Chief Nursing Office for Northern Ireland Charlotte McArdle and UKHSA Chief Medical Adviser Susan Hopkins. Stream here.  
REPORTS OUT TODAY: The emissions trading scheme could cost local councils £1.1 billion by 2036, according to research by the Local Government Association … one in 78 children in England are homeless and living in temporary accommodation, according to Shelter … public transport is struggling more than housing and education, according to a new public services tracker from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research … the Fabian Society says everyone should be issued a universal library card from birth … low pay is creating an aging workforce in the FE teaching industry, but higher pay to increase recruitment reduces retention rates, says the NFER.
SW1 EVENTS: Policy Exchange hosts a panel discussion on the International Criminal Court with former Director of Public Prosecutions Ken Macdonald, crossbench peer Ian Burnett and nonaffiliated peer Guglielmo Verdirame at 12 p.m. (details here).
**Tune in to the climate policy chatter during party conference season. As the U.K.’s political parties gather to discuss their priorities, energy policy could be part of the conversation – and you shouldn’t be missing out. Get policy developments and insights from our London newsroom in our exclusive POLITICO Pro Debrief today at 11 a.m. BST. Sign up here.**
NOR-WAY OR THE HIGH WAY: Foreign Secretary David Lammy is visiting his Norwegian counterpart Espen Barth Eide to announce “enhanced intelligence-sharing” and cooperation to counter Russian disinformation networks. Lammy will also welcome Norway’s navy patrols of the waters between the U.K. and the Russian Northern Fleet and discuss subsea threats to energy, security and critical national infrastructure. They’ll talk about tactics to cut the flow of illicit funds to Putin’s war chest following U.K. sanctions. Lammy will speak to broadcasters NRK and TV2.
The MP to mayoral wannabe route: Playbook hears that former Tory MP Matt Warman, who lost his Boston and Skegness seat to Reform moneyman Richard Tice, is poised to announce he will make a bid to be the Conservative candidate for the new Lincolnshire mayoralty. 
WHO WILL DO THE WALK OF SHAME: Members of the European Parliament will soon hold hearings for the 26 commissioners named by President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday. Not all will necessarily survive the process: Since 2004, the European Parliament has rejected at least one nominee in every new Commission, and seven in total. My Brussels-based colleagues have compiled a list of the five most likely to get the chop this time. 
WEATHER WARNING: Massive storms that have caused flooding across Central Europe — killing at least 22 people in Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Austria — reached the central Italian city of Pescara. The BBC has more.
FREE: Russian-British activist and journalist Vladimir Kara-Murza addressed lawmakers and diplomats in a U.S. Senate hearing room Tuesday, weeks after being freed in a major prison swap with Russia (ICYMI, my colleague Eva Hartog had an excellent story on the deal earlier this week). “Whatever the cynics and the skeptics will tell you, advocacy works and public attention protects,” Kara-Murza said, according to Reuters.
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No government or opposition broadcast rounds. Having a pre-conference rest. 
Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Ofcom Director of Strategy Delivery, Online Safety Group Mark Bunting (8.35 a.m.). 
Times Radio Breakfast: Conservative MP Neil Shastri-Hurst (7.20 a.m.) … Former Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond (7.35 a.m.) … Centre for Women’s Justice founder Harriet Wistrich (7.30 a.m.) … Former Director of Israel’s internal security service Shin Bet Yaakov Peri (8 a.m.) … Former Department for Education Permanent Secretary Jonathan Slater (8.15 a.m.)
Sky News Breakfast: Harriet Wistrich (7.30 a.m.) … Labour MP Emily Thornberry (8.15 a.m.). 
LBC News: ONS Deputy Director for Price Statistics Stephen Burgess (7.50 a.m.). Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Labour MP Josh Simons … Conservative peer Ed Vaizey … TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak … former Conservative SpAd Anita Boateng.
POLITICO UK: Britain and France plan new military agreement.
Daily Express: 1.7m will not heat homes this winter to save money.
Daily Mail: ‘Israel’s’ exploding pagers put Middle East on the brink. 
Daily Mirror: Exploding pager hell.
Daily Star: Age of the Zombies.
Financial Times: Eight killed as Hizbollah members’ low-tech pagers explode in Lebanon.
The i: Hezbollah vows revenge on Israel after exploding pagers kill nine and injure thousands.
Metro: Courage of crossbow carnage victim.
The Daily Telegraph: Thousands of pager bombs rock Hezbollah.
The Guardian: Hezbollah vows to strike back at Israel after deadly pager attacks.
The Independent: Exploding pagers kill 9 and injure 2,700 in cyberhit on Hezbollah. 
The Times: Exploding pagers wreak havoc among Hezbollah.
**Tune in to the trade policy chatter during party conference season. As the U.K.’s political parties gather to discuss their priorities, trade policy could be part of the conversation – and you shouldn’t be missing out. Get on-the-ground insights from our London newsroom in our exclusive POLITICO Pro Debrief on September 19 at 11 a.m. BST. Don’t miss out – register now!.**
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Breezy September sun, nice. High 24C, low 14C.
GOOD LUCK TO: James Schneider as he competes in the World Chess Olympiad in Budapest on behalf of *checks notes* St Vincent and the Grenadines. Jeremy Corbyn’s former spinner, who’s largely been residing in the Caribbean nation in recent years, is taking on Sierra Leone today in a classical over the board match. 
JOB NEWS: Heather Iqbal, who served as Rachel Reeves’ highly rated political adviser until making a bid to become an MP at the last election, is joining Flint Global as a specialist partner. 
BEST WISHES TO: House of Commons chef Terry Wiggins, who has served hungry politicos for 50 years and had his send-off Tuesday. 
SPOTTED: At the glitzy ConservativeHome summer party in the Cloisters at Westminster Abbey, where Editor Giles Dilnot told the room “rumors of the party’s imminent demise are premature and exaggerated,” and asked attendees to contact him with any ideas of how it can get back on track: Shadow Climate Change Secretary Claire Coutinho … Shadow Health Secretary Victoria Atkins … shadow ministers Gagan Mohindra, Danny Kruger and Saqib Bhatti … leadership candidates Robert Jenrick and James Cleverly (with wife Susie) … Conservative MPs Ben Obese-Jecty, Lewis Cocking, Andrew Rosindell, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Richard Holden, Katie Lam, Mark Francois, Bradley Thomas and Jack Rankin … Conservative peers Tina Stowell, David Howell, Charlotte Vere, Howard Leigh, Neil Mendoza, Peter Booth, Matthew Elliott and Robert Hayward … Labour peer and broadcaster Ayesha Hazarika … Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen … former Conservative MPs Damian Green, Chloe Smith, Katherine Fletcher and Paul Scully … ConservativeHome’s Angus Parsad-Wyatt, Harry Phibbs, Sara Kumar and William Atkinson … Tories in Comms’ Adam Honeysett-Watts … Marks and Spencer’s Adam Hawksbee … Total Politics CEO Mark Wallace … CCHQ’s Mike Chattey … the Conservative Women Organisation’s Pamela Hall … Team Cleverly’s Callum Price … City AM Editor-in-Chief Christian May… Sun Political Editor Harry Cole … hacks Alys Denby, Christian Calgie, Marie Le Conte, Harry Cole, Nicholas Watt, Camilla Tominey, Carole Walker, Julia Hartley-Brewer, Paul Staines, Chris Montgomery and Iain Watson.
Also spotted … at the launch of Anushka Asthana’s book “Taken as Red”: Jeremy Corbyn’s former strategy and comms chief Seumas Milne standing a few yards from Environment Secretary and Labour Together big-wig Steve Reed while Asthana explained how Labour Together killed the Corbyn project … Health Secretary Wes Streeting … Home Office Minister Seema Malhotra … Labour MPs Alison McGovern, Calvin Bailey, Chris Curtis and Rupa Huq … former Deputy Prime Minister Thérèse Coffey … former SNP MP Owen Thompson … No. 10’s Claire Stewart, Vidhya Alakeson and Sophie Nazemi … Labour Head of Digital Tom Lillywhite … No. 10 Policy Unit head Stuart Ingham … Unison General Secretary Christina McAnea … GMB’s Emma Bean and Jon Parker Dean … former Downing Street comms director Amber de Botton … UK in a Changing Europe Director Anand Menon … Labour Women’s Network Director Claire Reynolds … PPI’s Claire Ainsley … SpAds Jess Leigh, Jonty Leibowitz and Kirsty O’Brien … former Keir Starmer chief of staff Sam White … former Corbyn aide Laura Parker … former Labour adviser Matt Lavender … Refugee Council CEO Enver Solomon … Guardian Editor-in-Chief Kath Viner … Political Editors Ben Riley Smith and Andy Bell … hacks Jon Craig, Jack Elsom, Rowena Mason, Rajeev Syal, Esme Wren and Aggie Chambre … ITV’s Paul Brand, Robert Peston and Fred Dimbleby.
Also spotted … at the Department for Education media drinks: Education Ministers Anneliese Dodds, Catherine McKinnell, Stephen Morgan and Janet Daby … SpAds Ben Fazakerley, Vicky Salt and Owain Mumford … Tortoise Political Editor Cat Neilan … Indy Whitehall Editor Kate Devlin … hacks Sally Weale, Richard Adams, Paul McNamara, Poppy Wood, Jack Elsom, Lizzy Buchan, Connie Dimsdale, Anna Gross, Hazel Shearing, Georgia Lambert and Harry Taylor.
END-OF-SUMMER READING: Former special adviser Christopher Howarth’s novel “The Durian Pact” is out today, focusing on an MP on a mission to prevent a disaster unfolding in Asia that could spark war. The tale is said to blend fact and fiction.
NOW LISTEN (IF YOU MUST) … To this toe-curling interview with Lib Dem MP and former rower Roz Savage in which Peter Cardwell tried to get to the bottom of her views on social care. Maybe she had a late night at the Glee Club party?
AND THEN LISTEN: To the latest edition of Politics at Jack and Sam’s Daily, which should be landing in your podcast feed right about now. As ever, POLITICO’s Jack Blanchard and Sky News’ Sam Coates talk you through the day ahead in British politics in less than 20 minutes. Enjoy!
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Mason Boycott-Owen.
WRITING PLAYBOOK THURSDAY MORNING: Sam Blewett.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Swansea East MP and Welsh Labour Deputy Leader Carolyn Harris … Vauxhall and Camberwell Green MP Florence Eshalomi … former Brigg and Goole MP Andrew Percy … former Buckingham and Bletchley MP Iain Stewart … Labour aide Niall Sookoo … Heathrow Airport Chief Communications and Sustainability Officer Nigel Milton.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Jack Blanchard and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.
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